Probability Of Getting A Blackjack

  • Blackjack strategy probability The total number of possible combinations of two cards from the starting hands is to play with one deck of cards and 2 game packages. The probability of getting a natural blackjack is P = 32/663 = 4.82654% for a 1 game pack and P = 64/1339 = 4.77968% for 2-game packages.
  • We draw two branches from the A: F for a face card or ten, and A or O for everything else. Sixteen out of the 51 cards left in the pack are worth ten, so the branch to the F in the top right has a probability of 16/51 - one way of getting a blackjack has a probability of (4/52) x (16/51) = (64/2652), which cancels down to 16/663.
  1. Probability Of Getting A 20 In Blackjack
  2. Probability Of Getting A Blackjack
  3. Blackjack Statistics
  4. Probability Of Getting A Blackjack
  5. Blackjack Statistics And Probabilities

Probability Of Getting A 20 In Blackjack

If there are more 10s and aces in the deck/shoe, then the probability of getting blackjack will be higher. Using one fresh deck: There are two ways to get blackjack.Probability Of Blackjack In 52 Card Deck. Probability of blackjack in 52 card deck BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION 9) You have seen 12 cards from a 52-card blackjack deck.

mcavanaugh8
Hey all! I'm not all that math-inclined, so I was just curious as to what the odds are (if this is even possible to calculate) of NOT being dealt a blackjack in a shoe? And how that extrapolates over multiple shoes? I ask because this past weekend I played roughly 10 shoes in 6D blackjack and was not dealt a single blackjack. The guy three seats over from me was dealt, I kid you not, 8 blackjacks in a single shoe. Should have sat there instead!
weezrDASvegas
I think you askin the complementary probability for getting a blackjack
q = 1 – p
Probability to get blackjack p ~ 5%
Probability to NOT get blackjack: q=1-5%=95% (95% of all hands you deal to yourself).
One site analyzes probably all possible situations – number of decks, number of players, cards remaining in the deck. It goes like this (urls not permitted here)
forums . / blackjack-natural-odds-probability . html
(remove spaced surrounding / .)
You can google also odds to get a blackjack.
Player with 8 blackjacks in a 6D shoe seems unreal. If it was the dealer I would have suspected the automatic shuffler.
mcavanaugh8
Getting

I think you askin the complementary probability for getting a blackjack
q = 1 – p
Probability to get blackjack p ~ 5%
Probability to NOT get blackjack: q=1-5%=95% (95% of all hands you deal to yourself).
One site analyzes probably all possible situations – number of decks, number of players, cards remaining in the deck. It goes like this (urls not permitted here)
forums . / blackjack-natural-odds-probability . html
(remove spaced surrounding / .)
You can google also odds to get a blackjack.
Player with 8 blackjacks in a 6D shoe seems unreal. If it was the dealer I would have suspected the automatic shuffler.


Hmm, so do you mean it's a 95% chance when being dealt a hand that it will not be a natural blackjack? That seems to make sense. But if it's 95% per hand that you won't get one, my real question is that if you play through 10 shoes and you have a 5% chance of getting blackjack on a hand, what are the chances that never occurs? I don't think I'd ever gone ~3 shoes without one before this weekend! Haha.
And yeah, it was crazy! He had four in a row at one point... the dealer was flabbergasted.
Unfortunately on the next shoe the dealer had three in a row, sandwiched between a couple of 20s and 21s. Was not a good day for me!
gordonm888
the answer to your question depends upon the number of hands you can expect to be dealt in 6 shoes, which in turn depends upon the number of players at the table (you have already indicated there was at least one other player.)
So: How many players were at the table?
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
weezrDASvegas

Hmm, so do you mean it's a 95% chance when being dealt a hand that it will not be a natural blackjack? That seems to make sense. But if it's 95% per hand that you won't get one, my real question is that if you play through 10 shoes and you have a 5% chance of getting blackjack on a hand, what are the chances that never occurs? I don't think I'd ever gone ~3 shoes without one before this weekend! Haha.
And yeah, it was crazy! He had four in a row at one point... the dealer was flabbergasted.
Unfortunately on the next shoe the dealer had three in a row, sandwiched between a couple of 20s and 21s. Was not a good day for me! forums . / saliu . com / blackjack-natural-odds-probability . html


You described a phishy session in that casino. Automatic or continuous shufflers in “beast mode” maybe?
NOT a blackjack in 6D is the opposite of 1 bj in 6D. The site I pointed you to was not printed correctly here because of no urls allowed policy. It has the formulas for many situations. Number of players is very important also. Number of bjs per deck should be distributed equally amongst all players. Like every player should get 2 bjs on average per deck if plying some 10 decks.
I don’t trust those automatic shufflers for the life of me. But they are part of life now.
weezrDASvegas
The probability of getting a blackjack is a hypothetical situation looks like. You shuffle a deck and deal 2 cards. If you do it 100 times, the 2-card hand is a bj in 5 situations; in other 95 shuffles the hand is not a blackjack.
But there is the dealer also. So you get the bj every 21 cards and so does the dealer. That should be also the case with dealer plus 5 players in a 6D shoe. Of course the cards are not perfectly distributed. In one 6D shuffle you might get 8 bjs while the dealer gets one or none—and vice versa. That is very rare if the game is fair. It’s hard to believe you got NO bj in 10 6D shuffles even considering penetration. I never remember something similar happening to me.
BlackjackGuy123

Probability Of Getting A Blackjack

Depends, how many players are playing?
If it is just heads up and we are talking about a shoe where there is 1 decks cut off out of six, then we can expect to get 52 rounds in playing heads up. So the odds of not getting blackjack in one trial is 95.17%.
.9517 to the 52nd power is 7.6%
But at a crowded table the probability would be much higher.
mcavanaugh8

the answer to your question depends upon the number of hands you can expect to be dealt in 6 shoes, which in turn depends upon the number of players at the table (you have already indicated there was at least one other player.)
So: How many players were at the table?


It was a full table--maybe a hand or two lag between a player getting up and another sitting down, but it was almost always full for the shoes I was in.
mcavanaugh8

Depends, how many players are playing?
If it is just heads up and we are talking about a shoe where there is 1 decks cut off out of six, then we can expect to get 52 rounds in playing heads up. So the odds of not getting blackjack in one trial is 95.17%.
.9517 to the 52nd power is 7.6%
But at a crowded table the probability would be much higher.


Full table in 6D BJ with about 2 decks penetration on average.

Blackjack Statistics


Hmm interesting. Maybe not as uncommon as I thought, then.
mcavanaugh8

The probability of getting a blackjack is a hypothetical situation looks like. You shuffle a deck and deal 2 cards. If you do it 100 times, the 2-card hand is a bj in 5 situations; in other 95 shuffles the hand is not a blackjack.
But there is the dealer also. So you get the bj every 21 cards and so does the dealer. That should be also the case with dealer plus 5 players in a 6D shoe. Of course the cards are not perfectly distributed. In one 6D shuffle you might get 8 bjs while the dealer gets one or none—and vice versa. That is very rare if the game is fair. It’s hard to believe you got NO bj in 10 6D shuffles even considering penetration. I never remember something similar happening to me.


Probability Of Getting A Blackjack

Variance was not on my side, it seems. I was honestly baffled--I was dealt PLENTY of tens and aces. I can't even remember how many soft hands I doubled on against dealer low cards. I just never got the ten and ace together lol.

Blackjack Statistics And Probabilities

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